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 Opposition parties in Serbia are becoming more vocal in demanding early elections. While Tomislav Nikolic’s Progressive Party has collected 900 000 signatures in order to push for early elections, the parties which make up the government have, citing parliamentary rules, repeated well known arguments that there can be no early elections as long as the government has parliament majority support. Statistically speaking the government does of course have majority in parliament, even though it is a slight one. It often happens that common interests are reached only after lengthy negotiations and bartering.
 For example, the new Law on Media was voted in even though the Democratic Party’s coalition partner, the Socialist Party, decided to vote against it – the opposition Liberal Democratic Party luckily stepped in and thanks to them the new Law passed. Then there was the instance when the budget was being voted on and four members of the Hungarian minority party, Coalition of Vojvodina’s Hungarians, gave their votes against the budget proposal – again the government managed to convince two independent representatives from the opposition to cast their votes in favor of the proposal. Great effort was invested to secure the 127 votes necessary for the budget to be approved. There is also a lot of strife over the Srebrenica resolution which has been going on for months. President Boris Tadic initiated in parliament (in February) a resolution condemning the Srebrenica genocide. However, it is precisely because the term ‘genocide’ is used that the parliamentary debate over it has been postponed several times.
 President Tadic’s initial plan was to have one parliamentary resolution which would, in accordance with the International Tribunal’s verdict, condemn the Srebrenica genocide – for which Serbia is not directly responsible but indirectly is, since it did not stop the bloodshed. Within the ruling coalition the Socialist Party stated that if there already has to be such a resolution there also has to be a separate resolution condemning all the crimes committed against Serbs. The opposition replied to this saying that there is no need for two distinct resolutions but that only one is needed – which would condemn all crimes whether they were perpetrated by Serbs or against them. Matters become more complicated considering that the Socialists have a problem with the term ‘genocide’ since according to them it would be enough to say these were war crimes or, maybe, aggravated war crimes.
 The continuing strife over this parliamentary declaration has led to several misunderstandings. First of all, Radovan Karadzic’s trial has begun in The Hague – he is indicted for war crimes, including the Srebrenica genocide. In his defense speech Karadzic called the Srebrenica genocide a ‘myth’ and stressed that there were ‘only’ several thousand people executed there – all of them armed men. His defense focused on the claim that he was at the forefront of the Serb national interests and Serbs as a people. Arguing for his innocence he said that there were crimes on both sides, but that this is something that happens in war anyway. The Serbian press has been covering Karadzic’s defense in great detail and in the light of this fact it is most obvious why a parliamentary resolution on Srebrenica is so necessary – a resolution which would clearly state that Serbia refuses to let anyone justify their own crimes by saying they were committed in the name of Serbs.
 All this arguing, all this indecisiveness, all this nitpicking, says more about how little unity there is in the ruling coalition and that this coalition is provisional. This fact comes to light when we consider that when the Coalition of Vojvodina’s Hungarians denied support for the budget the Democratic Party broke off their coalition with this minority party on the local level. Because of this in Subotica, a town with a slight Hungarian majority, the Hungarian parties have been pushed into the opposition, while in Senta, which also has a Hungarian majority, the Democratic Party has broken their coalition with the Coalition of Vojvodina’s Hungarians and has made a coalition with the smaller Hungarian Citizens Coalition. Then things became really funny: in the meantime the minister of internal affairs Ivica Dacic said that he will look into the possibility of banning the minority party Movement for Hungarian Hope because it is cooperating with a civil organization from neighboring Hungary, known as Youth Movement of 64 Counties – this organization has certain irredentist goals. The said party had denied the minister’s claims, followed by a statement made by the party president to the daily Politika where he explained that members of the Movement of 64 Counties were on a different party’s list – the Citizen’s Coalition of Hungarians, or the party that made a coalition with the Democratic Party. This is where the confusion turns into farce: either the statements made by vice-president of government and minister of internal affairs are not true or the Democratic Party is prepared to make partners out of anyone, even extremists, in order to punish the Coalition of Vojvodina’s Hungarians. Either one or the other is possible.
 The inconsistencies multiply when you consider that the Democratic Party has punished only the Coalition of Vojvodina’s Hungarians for insubordinance, even though they support the government in parliament but are not a part of the ruling coalition. On the other hand, the Democratic Party is very agreeable with the Socialists and did not even consider breaking the coalition on any local level due to their ‘lack of discipline’ – meaning that they have two sets of rules. In effect, they behave one way toward a minority party and another towards Milosevic’s Socialists.
 When they demand early elections the opposition has precisely these fault lines in sight and rightfully concludes that the ruling coalition is very provisional, since it is not only the Socialists who are blocking the Democratic Party from keeping the campaign promises, but also smaller coalition parties – as is for example Dragan Markovic Palma’s United Serbia Party, which was founded by Zeljko Raznjatovic Arkan, commander of paramilitary formations active in Croatian and Bosnian war zones.  
 Truth be told, these parties have changed somewhat in the meantime, mostly regarding the issue of EU ascension, but this is not enough. Especially not considering that opposition parties have also changed positions. According to public opinion polls next elections will have two favorites: the Democratic Party and the Progressive Party (Progressives came out of the Serbian Radical Party); these two are also currently leading shoulder to shoulder in popularity. It should be mentioned that both parties are for Serbia’s ascension to the EU, and analysts believe that the difference between them (regarding degree of voter support) is decreasing. Other smaller parties have also gone through these transformations and have condensed their essential messages to two points. It is well known that one of them is EU ascension, while the other is keeping the state’s territorial integrity intact, meaning keeping Kosovo. The media have a similar stance. There has not been greater national consensus in Serbia in the past twenty years!
 The only surprise is that despite this far reaching consensus the opposition is demanding early elections.
 Voters are in a dilemma as well since major discrepancies which orient their choice making have disappeared. Two years ago many of them voted for the Democratic Party and the parties that made a coalition with it in order to prevent a victory of Seselj’s Radicals. In the meantime this party has been pushed down to the margins of political existence – it usually loses in early local elections – so citizens have no one to vote against any more. On its own this would pose no big problem. The problem now is that differences between parties have lessened and now the voters are not sure anymore who they should vote for. People seem to be turning increasingly more to the Serbian Progressive Party since (at least not formally) it hasn’t taken part in government, or any corruption scandals. The psychological effect of this resonates most with the voters considering that basically all major parties in Serbia are rightist and very nationalistic – so they all offer pretty much the same remedies for this difficult economic crisis.
 Despite the 900 000 signatures the Democratic Party has remained steadfast that elections will take place only when government loses majority in parliament. Numerous political analysts have pointed out that this attitude is wrong and that democrats should call for elections right now because they have made great strides towards the EU, meaning that they have (partly) kept their election promises and, we must admit, that in the current situation this is no small feat.
 President Boris Tadic gave an interview to the weekly Vreme and in it he made a more detailed observation on the economic situation in the country. From this interview we can deduce why his party is insisting that parliamentary elections be held in 2010 as scheduled. Tadic obviously believes that Serbia will come out of this crisis by 2010, meaning that by 2012 we could count on improved living standards for citizens. Hence, the Democratic Party could take a landslide victory by 2012.
 Now would not be a good time to test their strength since there is a high degree of economic uncertainty and the number of dissatisfied voters is growing. In accordance with the International Monetary Fund salaries and pensions have been frozen until the end of the year but prices have started to climb. Gas, fuel and electric energy costs are up, and this in turn caused other articles and services to become more expensive. However, in comparison to life in the nineties everyday life is much more bearable, standards are higher and citizens’ expectations are higher as well.
 Strengthening of national unity is in an upswing as well and the gap between rich and poor is widening. The ugly truth about privatization is coming out into the light – many new owners of now privatized companies are not paying the mandatory pension and health benefits, and in some places paychecks are late for half a year or more. There is obviously a certain stratum of society that has nothing more to lose and these people will not have any qualms over staging extreme protests. At one such protest desperate workers laid down on railway tracks in protest. The scope and scale and reasons for demonstrations are multiplying.
 The state is, metaphorically, playing fireman – which cannot last very long since it is stressing the budget. At the end all that is left is the picture of a weakened, helpless state. In the past couple of years the press has written about various “mafias” – construction mafia, toll payment mafia, professors’ mafia (selling of university diplomas), railway mafia and others. The police, prosecutors and courts have not been able to deal with organized crime effectively. It seems more and more obvious that the state is weak.
 In order to balance out the situation Boris Tadic is over-emphasizing the successes of Serbian police against the drug mafia, exemplified in their uncovering of drug lord Darko Saric’s business. Politicians from the ruling coalition regularly stress how Serbia is the regional leader. On TV we could see regular coverage of how luxuriously drug lord Saric lived. He had around ten villas across Serbia; in the northern province of Vojvodina he bought many fertile fields, so that he accumulated several thousand acres.
 The logical question is what kinds of connections could Saric have had with the Serbian police, with high ranking state functionaries? It is evident that he had to have had some connections. They all saw him accumulating all those riches. Cedomir Jovanovic, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, is convinced that behind the dealings of this drug lord lays a very influential corruption network. Authorities of course deny these allegations, while the media is switching focus to Montenegro, saying that that’s where Saric’s headquarters were and that he is currently under the protection of influential politicians in Montenegro.
 This circumstance also points to another sore spot and that is regional cooperation. In the aforementioned interview Boris Tadic denied that Serbia’s relations to regional countries (Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia and Montenegro) have deteriorated. Tadic, however, does not deny that Kosovo is a very dangerous neuralgic spot. This point is reaffirmed by Bernard Kouchner’s (French Minister of Foreign Affairs) visit to Belgrade. The European Union had (thus far) sent mixed messages and Kouchner continued this trend stressing that Serbia’s integration in the EU is not conditioned on accepting Kosovo’s independence. He did however swerve a little bit and invite representatives from Belgrade to negotiate with Kosovo’s leaders. Later he traveled to Pristina, where he said that, at least as far as France is concerned, Kosovo’s independence is undisputed. The press reported how Kouchner tried to soften Belgrade’s stance. Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs (in Budapest at the time) didn’t mince words and directly said that Serbia cannot be softened and that it will discuss Kosovo only with the United Nations and EULEX and stressed that if Serbia were put in a position to chose between Kosovo and the EU it would always chose Kosovo. This macho statement was well received by Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia. They happily pointed out that Minister Jeremic had stolen Kostunica’s policies. Seselj’s Radicals also gave their full support to Jeremic. For the time being at least opposition parties favor the Minister of Foreign Affairs over President Boris Tadic. But all plans of a common future are lost beyond this point.
 Both Belgrade and Pristina are waiting for the ruling of the International Court of Justice in The Hague. This ruling will not be binding for anyone though and so the situation will remain unchanged but it will give an opportunity for both sides to once again reformulate what they have already stated. In any case, in Serbia people still believe that we can continue unhindered on our journey to the EU without having to resolve the Kosovo issue and that we can become a member of the EU without being in NATO. There is only one obstacle – arresting general Mladic. But, there is plenty of time for that.